The Debt Ceiling Fight

From Xpostfactoid today:

"To listen to Obama's statement about budget negotiations this afternoon, you would think that he has willingly embraced the debt ceiling deathline as a means to force a deficit reduction deal quickly: the current negotiations under threat of default are, he said, "a unique opportunity to do something big."  Refusing to entertain the possibility that a comprehensive 10- or 12-year deal won't be struck before the August 2 debt ceiling deadline, Obama said that lawmakers should not "kick the can down the road" with a short-term raise of the debt ceiling.


"I hope Obama proves me wrong, but it seems to me that there is something fundamentally wrong with this "opportunity". He should not be trying to negotiate a multi-year $4 trillion deal in this short time frame, under threat of default, with a GOP that continues to swear,as Boehner did today in response to Obama's speech, that it will not raise taxes at all. It's either madness or some kind of feint.


"In my nightmares, Obama shapes up as the General McClellan of the deficit wars -- wondrous in his ability to inspire the troops, baffling in his unwillingness to fight.


"I hope he pulls a rabbit out of a very shallow hat. But I don't see how he can."

And this from a Progressive, and a very smart one at that.
People still can't tell what Obama's doing. Here's my take:


The President sincerely hopes Republicans will take the deal: about $2 trillion in cuts, $400 billion in revenue increases from closing loopholes. 83% spending cuts, 17% revenue increases. In March, the Republican Study Committee came out with a blueprint for 85% spending cuts and 15% revenue increases. He is offering just what they asked for, plus rounding errors. Will they take it? Probably not. Why not? They think the President will cave. So does Adam Serwer at Xpostfactoid. McClellan is not the right general to be compared with.
Will the President cave? No. Why not? Did you read David Brooks' column Monday - "The Mother of all No Brainers" . Here are the key graphs:


"The struggles of the next few weeks are about what sort of party the G.O.P. is — a normal conservative party or an odd protest movement that has separated itself from normal governance, the normal rules of evidence and the ancient habits of our nation.

"IF the debt ceiling talks fail, independents voters will see that Democrats were willing to compromise but Republicans were not. If responsible Republicans don’t take control, independents will conclude that Republican fanaticism caused this default. They will conclude that Republicans are not fit to govern.
"And they will be right."


He won't cave because he doesn't have to. Brooks, a conservative columnists, is right. He is calling the Republicans out. Obama and the Democrats have consistently been willing to compromise. Republicans have not. The goal posts have been continually moved. And they still think he will cave.


Obama said he doesn't want to kick the can down the road, but he, as usual, did not draw a final red line in the sand. So there's a chance this will get kicked down the road, because he might take a "reasonable offer" from Republicans. The strategy requires him to remain reasonable.

I hope this doesn't happen. I hope Republicans, confident that the President will flinch, take us right off the cliff, only to discover Treasury is still paying the bills and that most responsible people now know what Brooks does: the Republican Party has gone nuts.