Pretty amazing. First Bachmann, then Perry, then Cain, and now Newt. Will he crater too? I don't think so. Too many Republican primary voters want somebody other than Mitt Romney. And only Santorum, Huntsman and Paul are left (candidates who have not had a big run). Santorum lost his Senate reelection bid; Huntsman is too moderate; and Paul is simply way off the Republican reservation.
So Newt's it. One month to go until Iowa. Then New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida. Romney is only favored in New Hampshire, and Newt is closing. In Iowa, South Carolina and Florida, Newt has a strong lead.
I predict Newt will win it. And if he doesn't, there will be a True Conservative 3rd party candidate. Probably not Newt. He's a loyal Republican. Keep an eye on Trump or Palin.
Most Conservatives/Republicans think Obama will lose. I don't. Democrats are winning the messaging war: the "Only Say No" Republicans are seen as acting on behalf of the wealthy, not the middle class. The "Tax and Spend" label doesn't fit Democrats so well any more. Unemployment just dropped from 9.0% to 8.6%. One war is ended. Another is winding down. No successful terrorist attack on Obama's watch. And, in my opinion, Newt is unelectable.